In this article, we will look at modelling a strategy for the development of the European energy system (EU, UK, Balkan countries) for the production of clean electricity, where wind and solar power plants will form the basis by 2035 (70-80%) in order to achieve zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.
Three possible development scenarios will be presented: the Stated Policy, which has been approved by national politicians until 2035 (Stated Policy), as well as Technology Driven and System Change, which are designed to minimise costs while remaining within a carbon budget compatible with the climate goals of the Paris Agreement. The latter two paths expand net electrification but differ in their assumptions about available technologies and levels of energy savings resulting from changes in society.
A net-zero energy system in Europe can be achieved by 2035 without additional costs beyond stated plans and without the threat of electricity shortages, as the large initial capital investment in wind and solar energy in the energy system is offset by lower carbon emissions costs and avoided costs associated with rising gas prices.
According to data on electricity production in Europe in the first half of 2022, electricity generation at wind and solar power plants is increasing while costs are falling. This provides for higher electrification, which could halve fossil carbon fuel consumption in Europe by 2030.
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System modernisation and a fourfold increase in renewable energy sources require additional initial investments of €300-750 billion. Abandoning fossil fuel consumption will save Europe around €1 trillion by 2035 and bring numerous benefits in terms of improving the environment, health and energy security. Given the high gas prices in 2021-2022, the savings could be even higher.
As a result of lower costs, by 2035 the average cost of electricity in clean energy systems will be 23-30% lower than under the stated policy.
The transition to green energy sources and the abandonment of carbon fuels is particularly relevant in Europe against the backdrop of the gas energy crisis caused by restrictions on Russian gas supplies and rising prices.
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Creating a larger, cleaner and cheaper energy system
Wind and solar energy will form the basis of Europe’s electricity supply by 2035, accounting for 70-80% of electricity generation. To achieve this goal, the annual increase in wind and solar power capacity must quadruple by 2025 compared to the past decade. Between 2025 and 2035, the cumulative growth rate of green capacity should reach 100-165 GW per year, compared to an annual growth rate of 24 GW per year between 2010 and 2020. By 2035, Europe’s wind farm capacity is expected to quadruple to 800 GW, while solar power capacity is expected to increase 5-9 times, reaching 800-1400 GW.
However, the plans for 2030, previously announced by the European Commission as part of its stated policy, have not yet been fulfilled. There are still serious problems with the implementation of these lofty ambitions and the deployment of energy infrastructure on the ground.
To solve the problem, capital investment needs to be increased to €720 billion. It is also necessary to phase out coal by 2030 and reduce gas consumption to 5% by 2035 in order for Europe’s energy system to comply with the Paris Agreement.
A flexible and reliable energy system
A clean, flexible and expanded energy system dominated by wind and solar power is reliable and resilient to extreme weather events.
By 2035, the capacity of wind and solar power plants may exceed demand, and excess electricity can be used for electrolysis to produce environmentally friendly hydrogen. The hydrogen produced will provide flexibility and stability to the energy system.
The Enel Group planned to produce hydrogen by electrolysis of water at the Kola Wind Farm for further export to Europe.
To ensure system balance, investments in infrastructure and the creation of distribution networks are also necessary to more effectively cope with the mismatch between supply and demand in different regions.
Simulated energy systems with a share of renewable energy sources of ~95% ensure operation in conditions of severe cold, increased demand for electricity, and a simultaneous prolonged reduction in wind and solar energy capacity (dunkelflaute). Even during this period, wind and solar energy continue to make a significant contribution (~30%), as it is extremely rare for meteorological phenomena to affect the entire European energy system at the same time.
During hot summer periods, high solar capacity in the system leads to extreme daily fluctuations in electricity generation. Hourly consumption and electricity production can be balanced through storage and electrolysis, which allows for the successful management of solar capacity that would otherwise far exceed demand.
At certain times of the year, wind and solar power are abnormally low, but there are many periods during the year when wind and solar power meet or exceed total electricity demand. At such key moments, it is important to redistribute surplus electricity between regions or convert it into hydrogen through electrolysis. Maximising the efficient use of electricity from renewable energy sources during periods of increased generation is very important in an environmentally friendly energy system.
What about Africa?
In countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia, powerful river systems provide clean electricity, while in Kenya and Tanzania, investments in geothermal and hydropower have radically changed the structure of their national energy generation.
The World Energy Outlook 2025 highlights the significance of these changes in a broader global context. In 2024, global energy demand grew by about 2%, but demand for electricity grew almost twice as fast, at nearly 4%, creating pressure for rapid capacity expansion.
For the first time, low-carbon sources (renewables and nuclear energy) accounted for more than 40% of global electricity generation, largely due to record additions of solar and wind power capacity. Nevertheless, the use of fossil fuels in absolute terms continues to grow, reflecting the difficult transition period in which the world still finds itself.
Wind turbines in 2025
The IEA predicts that wind power generation could surpass nuclear power in 2025. The global wind energy market is expected to continue its steady growth thanks to increased demand for renewable energy sources and support from governments. A new record may be set for the installation of new wind power plants around the world, both onshore and offshore. The latter industry is developing rapidly.
In 2025, several large-scale projects are planned to be launched for offshore wind energy production. Dogger Bank Wind Farm is a large offshore wind farm being built off the coast of Yorkshire in England, with the first phase scheduled to come online in 2025. At this stage, the farm will produce enough energy to power approximately 6 million homes in the UK. It could become the largest in the world.
Germany is building the He Dreiht Offshore Wind Farm in the North Sea with a total capacity of 960 MW. It is expected to start generating electricity in 2025 and will provide energy to around 1.1 million households.
The Global Wind Energy Council notes that as of 2023, China accounts for 64% of all wind power revenues in the global wind energy supply chain, from extraction to transportation and installation, and by 2025, the number of stations is expected to increase by 58%.
Non-standard panels
Engineers have recently been experimenting a lot with solar module formats so that they can be installed in a wide variety of locations. Flexible, foldable, and transparent panels have already been introduced, and this is certainly not the limit. In 2025, we can expect new discoveries that will allow us to harvest even more solar energy.
Flexible solar panels made of thin-film or photovoltaic materials are very lightweight and versatile, with applications ranging from roofs to vehicles and wearable technology. Transparent photovoltaic modules may replace window glass in the near future, and recently introduced technology also allows them to heat water.
Spanish renewable energy company Iberdrola has announced plans for a 1,200 MW Fernando Pessoa solar power plant in Portugal, which will be operational in 2025. The construction of this project will provide clean, cheap, and locally produced energy sufficient to meet the annual needs of approximately 430,000 households, which is almost twice the population of the city of Porto.